With BoJo Gone Who Becomes The Next Conservative Party Leader?

A week is a long time in politics, so the phrase goes, and that was certainly the case for the now ex-Conservative Party Leader and caretaker Prime Minister Boris Johnson last week.

He began the week leading both his party and the country but by the end of it, he had been ousted on both fronts.

He had been forced into a position where continuing was untenable due to the sheer scale of Conservative parliamentarians that had resigned their positions from government due to his handling of the Chris Pincher affair.

That was the final straw after almost countless missteps and controversies during his reign and it did not take too long after he had announced his resignation, without actually mentioning the word resign, for Conservative Party colleagues to start announcing their campaign to replace him as party leader.

And over the last five days or so, there has been a marked shift in the bet365 Sport betting markets on which of the candidates have been solidly backed to succeed Johnson, as well as seeing the odds on some early betting favourites drift out considerably.

So let’s take a look now at some of the more unusual betting markets at bet365, moving away from sports for a moment to have a look at the latest odds on who will replace Boris as the next Conservative Party Leader and inherit the mantle of Prime Minister.

Latest Next Conservative Party Leader Betting

So far, a total of 11 Conservative Politicians have put their name forward to be the next leader of the party and to replace Boris Johnson, but there have also been a couple of people that have seemingly ruled themselves out of contention for the leadership post.

• Who Has Ruled Themselves Out?

One of those was the Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, who was one of the shorter priced options with bet365 last week at 12/1, who is believed to have broad support across the party, but the MP for Wyre and Preston North ruled himself out of making a challenge for the leadership late last week.

Similarly, Michael Gove, MP for Surrey Heath, who was sacked from cabinet for ‘disloyalty’ by Boris Johnson the day before he resigned as PM, has also ruled himself out of the running.

The former Education and Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Secretary of State, has long been rumoured to be keen to lead the party, but it seems his popularity within Conservative ranks, especially those that supported Boris Johnson, is at an all-time low.

Other names that were linked with a move for leader but who will not contest the leadership include Dominic Raab, Matt Hancock, Tobias Ellwood and Therese Coffey.

• The Eleven Confirmed As Candidates

However, the 11 prospective leaders, together with their latest odds from bet365 are shown below:

• Rishi Sunak – 13/8
• Penny Mordaunt – 3/1
• Liz Truss – 9/2
• Tom Tugendhat – 10/1
• Kemi Badenoch – 12/1
• Jeremy Hunt – 16/1
• Sajid Javid – 22/1
• Nadim Zahawi – 28/1
• Suella Braverman – 28/1
• Grant Shapps – 100/1
• Rehman Chishti – 200/1

As you can see, there has been a huge flood of money on Rishi Sunak to be the next Conservative Party leader, with his odds being slashed since last week and it seems that his likeliest rivals will be Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss, as they are well clear of the rest of the candidates in the latest betting.

However, there is still time for other Conservative Party members to launch their leadership bid and there are some who still may yet throw their name into the hat.

• Who Could Still Declare A Leadership Bid?

One of these is the current Home Secretary Priti Patel (50/1) who is believed to have received support from a number of MPs to launch her own bid for the leadership. She could do that within the next 48-hours.

One of Boris Johnson’s staunchest allies, Nadine Dorries (200/1) is another who has been linked with launching her own bid for the role, however it is thought her unwavering support for Johnson would not sit well within the party ranks who want a complete change from Johnson’s style of government.

How Will The Conservative Party Select A New Leader?

The actual process for the Conservative Party to decide a new leader will be decided today (Monday 11^th July) by the 1922 Committee.

The committee is a group of Conservative backbench MPs who meet weekly in parliament separately from front bench MPs to get their views across to leadership.

However, the committee is also a key component of deciding who the next Conservative Party Leader will be and their meeting today will set out a process and a timetable for doing that.

That will most likely come in the shape of a three-part process.

• Party Leader Election Process

First will be the stage we are at now with Conservative MP’s forwarding themselves as future party leaders with the support of several other Conservative MPs nominating them for the position.

Once all the nominees are known (and the cut-off date for this is likely to be the 13^th July according to reports), then the second phase in the process will begin.

This will be a series of ballots of Conservative MPs which will allow them to vote for which candidate they want to be the next leader.

After each round of voting, the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated, and the remaining candidates progress into the next round of voting, with all MPs now voting again.

This continues until just two candidates remain, at which the third stage of the process kicks in.

At this point, the two candidates will have a short time to campaign for votes amongst the wider Conservative Party Membership, who will then vote, alongside Conservative MPs as to who they want to be their leader.

The winner of that vote of party members, will then go on to be the new leader of the party and inherit the mantle of Prime Minister, with the final vote likely to take place before the Conservative Party Conference scheduled for October.

It is at this point that Boris Johnson will stand down as caretaker Prime Minister, unless ousted by some other means such as a vote of no confidence in the government.

Who Should I Back To Win The Leadership Race?

It is never easy picking a winner in a leadership race, as in politics anything can happen as various campaign teams start to get themselves into gear.

In fact, campaigning has already started with a number of potentially damaging leaks and the start of smear campaigns about potential candidates and former Boris Johnson advisor Dominic Cumming tweeting his invective about a number of different candidates, although he did refrain from naming them.

What is certain is that the way the Ballot system works, means that even a clear favourite such as Rishi Sunak, is not guaranteed to win by any means.

That’s because supporters of eliminated candidates may elect to switch their support to a different candidate other than Sunak, and it seems that Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt may be in receipt of more of those later votes than Sunak.

For the time being, Sunak may be in the lead but I think the smart move may be a bet on Mordaunt. She has not polarised the party as much as other contenders and has enough broad support initially to get into the later stages of the ballot quite comfortably where I feel she will draw more support from MPs than Sunak will.