EPL Crazy Scorelines – What Are the Odds Of Them Happening?

This past couple of weekends we have seen some absolutely crazy scorelines in the Premier League involving the three teams that finished in the top three places last season. Last weekend, Manchester City were humbled 5-2 at home by Leicester City in what was seen as a ‘once in a season’ result. However, few would have expected what happened over this past weekend and particularly on Sunday afternoon and evening.

First up, Manchester United were thumped 6-1 at home by former boss Jose Mourinho’s new charges Tottenham Hotspur which left many fans incredulous at the scoreline. If that was stunning what followed was off the charts as Liverpool, who had lost just four of over 80 previous Premier League games, were humbled by a stunning performance from Aston Villa, a team who beat the drop by one point last season, with the Villains winning the game 7-2 (and in truth, it could easily have been three or four more goals worse for the Reds).

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So how often do we see these really unusual Premier League results, are they worth a bet on and could it happen again across the course of this current season? We decided to delve a little into the history of these unusual games for more details.

Premier League Most Shocking Scorelines

  • 1996 – Southampton 6-3 Manchester United
  • 1996 – Newcastle United 5-0 Manchester United
  • 1999 – Chelsea 5-0 Manchester United
  • 2008 – Middlesbrough 8-1 Manchester City
  • 2011 – Manchester United 8-2 Arsenal
  • 2011 – Manchester United 1-6 Manchester City
  • 2018 – Southampton 0-9 Leicester City
  • 2020 – Manchester City 2-5 Leicester City
  • 2020 – Manchester United 1-6 Tottenham Hotspur
  • 2020 – Aston Villa 7-2 Liverpool

Certainly, you can see from the historical record that these unusual results do happen from time to time, and this does not include some very big wins for teams, such as Spurs 9-1 win over Wigan Athletic or the crazy Portsmouth v Reading game that finished 7-4 to Pompey.

However, what makes this past trio of results so astonishing is that Man City and Liverpool in particular have been so dominant over the last two seasons that even beating them narrowly and with good fortune was considered a surprise, so for both to go down to humbling defeats in the space of a week apart is genuinely incredible.

Are these scorelines worth a bet on over the course of a Premier League season?

While I have not included all the crazy results in the Premier League over the years, there have been plenty of 6, 7 and even 8 goal games that I have not included in the above chiefly because it did not involve one of the bigger sides being on the wrong end of the result, it is clear that these strange results can happen. So, with that in mind, are they worth a bet?

The first thing to note is that the odds on these generally unusual scorelines are of course very high. For example, if you were to back Everton to beat Liverpool by the same 7-2 scoreline as Aston Villa did in the Reds next game after the international break, then you would get odds of between 150-200/1 with most bookmakers.

Indeed, with these strange score lines, Bookies tend to cap their odds at around 150 or 200/1 for all the crazy scoreline (for example, Liverpool to beat Everton 6-5 is also a 200/1 shot with some bookies, as is Liverpool to win 9-1).

However, given the fact that there have been thousands and thousands of Premier League games over the course of the years and there are relatively few genuine shock results which see a top team handed a massive defeat, even odds of 200/1 make them a very unattractive bet for punters and the odds are that your bet is going to be a loser.

Are there better options available for longer odds punters with strange football results?

Rather than trying to predict the correct score of such games, one better option may be to try and land them as part of a multiple selection bet, such as an accumulator as this is a good way to combine standard results with these shock wins to land you a bigger value bet.

For example, if you had backed the likes of Chelsea, Everton and Arsenal to win their home games, and then paired that with West Ham, Tottenham and Aston Villa to win their games, you would have received a fantastic return on your bet given the odds on the three wins for the latter three teams being so much higher.

Even adding just one ‘shock’ result to an accumulator bet can drastically improve the odds and mean that you are going to earn a better return than if you went for safer, more standard selections, but only if the result comes in however.

Even the best Premier League teams can lose games, that is already evident in every season, but this weekend was unusual by the amount ny which these teams lost, however in terms of betting, you are better trying to pick out potential ‘banana skin’ ties for the top Premier League teams and using them as part of a multiple selection bet, than trying to predict when the next stunning landslide defeat for a top team will be.

As you could be waiting many years for the next time Liverpool, Manchester City or Manchester United are trounced by another opponent.

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