The qualifiers from the European section of World Cup Qualifying are now starting to take shape. Ahead of Matchdays 9 and 10, Denmark and Germany had already confirmed their place in Qatar 2022.
And after the games from Thursday through to Sunday night, we now know that Belgium, Croatia, France, Spain and Serbia will be joining them.
In terms of the playoffs, things are a little less clear. North Macedonia, Portugal, Russia, Scotland and Sweden have been confirmed in the playoffs by finishing second in their group. They will be joined by Austria who have clinched one of the two places available for teams with the best Nations League record.
The remaining qualification issues will be decided by the games taking place tonight and
Tuesday night across Europe, although we know both Wales and the Czech Republic will both head into the playoffs as whichever of these teams finishes third in Group E, will earn the second Nations League qualification spot.
So with England, Scotland and Northern Ireland in action tonight, with England and Northern Ireland’s games having huge relevance in their groups, there will no doubt be lots of punters ready for a wager on the games and now with the single balance system, whether you signed up with bet365 Games, Poker, Bingo or Sport, you can place your bets on the site without having to move funds around.
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Let’s now take a look at the games over the next couple of days that will have an impact on which team qualifies as group winners, and which teams battling for a playoff slot.
All kick off times are 7.45pm and all odds shown were correct with bet365 Sport as of the time of writing, but may have changed in the meantime.
Key World Cup Qualifiers – Matchday 10
Monday 15th November
Group C
- Northern Ireland v Italy
- Switzerland v Bulgaria
What a night we have in store in Group C. Italy and Switzerland are both tied on points
heading into the last game in the group and while Italy hold a two-goal advantage on goal difference, if the Swiss can pull that back then they would be ahead of Italy on head to head rules due to scoring an away goal against the Italians in their 1-1 draw in Rome.
So for both these teams, it is about bettering the result of their opponent or, if they both land wins, Switzerland need to improve their goal difference by two in order to take top spot in the group. So if Italy were to win 1-0 against Northern Ireland, Switzerland would need to win 3-0 against Bulgaria to top the group.
This is a tricky one for Italy, whose form in recent games hasn’t been that great. I can see Switzerland scoring a few against a poor Bulgaria team and that may leave Italy needing a 2-0 or even 3-0 win to stay top of this group.
This one could well go down to the wire, but the teams to back for the win are Italy (1/5) and Switzerland (1/11).
Group I
- San Marino v England
- Poland v Hungary
Technically, England need a point from their trip to San Marino tonight to qualify as group
winners. And if they don’t get that against the worst team in international football, according to FIFA rankings, then they won’t deserve to qualify. England should win this game by a hatful of goals as the 1/100 price suggests.
That means Poland, who face Hungary, will finish second in the group regardless of their performance and I think that they will win this game at 8/13.
A more interesting bet for England fans may well be how many goals they will get against San Marino and you can back England to win 7-0 at 6/1.
Tuesday 16th November
Group E
- Wales v Belgium
- Czech Republic v Estonia
This is a pretty unusual group as it doesn’t really matter who finishes second out of Wales
and the Czech Republic as regardless of which team finish third in the group, they will earn the final qualification spot from the Nations League.
So the pressure is off both Wales and the Czech’s here and I think that will see a rather more relaxed approach in these games than other World Cup qualifiers. The Belgian side may decide to give fringe players a chance against Wales too, so that could be interesting to see how that game goes.
The Czech’s should easily beat Estonia, as the 1/10 odds suggest, and I think Belgium may just get the better of Wales here (13/10) but in truth, these games are not going to matter in terms of Playoff places as both teams already are assured regardless of whether they finish 2nd or 3rd in the group.
Group F
- Bosnia & Herzegovina v Ukraine
- Finland v France
With France smashing Kazakhstan 8-0 to earn top spot in the group on Matchday 9, the
question here is which out of the Ukraine and Finland will earn second spot in the group.
The Ukraine have the easier task on paper, travelling to Bosnia & Herzegovina to take on a home team that were well beaten 3-1 by Finland on Matchday 9. That win catapulted Finland into second spot in the table and hands them a two point advantage over the Ukrainians who have drawn six of their seven games in the group so far.
Ukraine must win against Bosnia and hope that Finland lose to France to ensure they finish second. If Finland win, they earn a playoff spot, but if they draw and the Ukraine win, then it is likely to go down to goal difference, depending on by how many goals the Ukraine win by.
There is a situation where the playoff spot in this group could be decided by head to head record between Finland and the Ukraine, which would see Ukraine finish second on head to head record against the Finns.
My gut feeling here is that France will win in Finland (8/13) but that the Ukraine will only manage a draw against Bosnia & Herzegovina (14/5) and that could well cost them a place in the playoffs.
Group G
- Netherlands v Norway
- Montenegro v Turkey
After throwing away a 2-0 lead in Montenegro on Matchday 9, the Netherlands should have
had top spot in this group sewn up. That 2-2 draw along with Turkey’s win and Norway’s draw with Latvia, means that all three of these teams could win the group.
The Dutch still hold the upper hand, a win over Norway sees them qualify and would likely eliminate Norway, barring a heavy Turkey loss away to Montenegro. A draw would also likely see them qualify as they have a massive advantage in goal difference over Turkey (+23 to +10).
Turkey know a win guarantees them at least a playoff spot and could even see them top the group if Norway beat the Netherlands but fail to overcome the goal difference between themselves and Turkey.
Norway need a win to confirm a playoff spot at the least but a draw will suffice if Turkey lose their game against Montenegro.
This is certainly the group with the most at stake still as we head into the final round of games but it is hard to see the Netherlands blowing it at this point. Take the Netherlands to beat Norway at 2/5 to claim top spot in the group and I’d team that with Turkey earning a draw in Montenegro (3/1) to give the Turks a spot in the playoffs.
